Elite tennis expert Sean Calvert just released his Australian Open 2022 men’s final picks for Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal is one step away from his record 21st Grand Slam title, but standing in his way in the 2022 Australian Open men’s singles final is world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev. Nadal can break the three-way tie with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer as the all-time men’s singles Grand Slam winner if he wins Sunday’s match in Melbourne. Both won their semifinals in four sets, with the sixth-seeded Nadal defeating Matteo Berrettini 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 and No. 2 seed Medvedev getting past Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6 (7-5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. The players have met four times, with Nadal winning three but Medvedev winning the most recent meeting, in 2020 in London.
First serve is set for 3:30 a.m. ET. Medvedev is the -187 favorite (risk $187 to win $100) in the latest 2022 Australian Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Nadal is a +160 underdog (risk $100 to win $160). Caesars also offers numerous other Medvedev vs. Nadal bets, including an over-under on total games played at 39.5, total sets (three +125, four +155 and five +245) and many more. Before locking in any Nadal vs. Medvedev picks or props, you need to see the 2022 Australian Open predictions and betting advice from internationally acclaimed tennis expert Sean Calvert.
Calvert is the elite tennis handicapper who called Stan Wawrinka winning the 2014 Australian Open at 60-1 – the last Australian title won by someone other than Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer. In 2019, Calvert took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1, among many stunning calls.
And in 2021, he nailed both of his bets for the Wimbledon men’s singles final: Djokovic to beat Berrettini three sets to one (+275) and Djokovic to win and both players to win a set (+130). Anyone following his picks is way up.
Now, Calvert has scrutinized the latest Australian Open 2022 odds and released his coveted best bets for the Nadal vs. Medvedev final. He’s only sharing his Australian Open final picks and expert tennis analysis at SportsLine.
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev Live Stream
Nadal will not lack motivation as he chases the record, and he has looked strong in his return from a foot injury that threatened his career. He won the Melbourne Summer Set by beating big-hitting Maxime Cressy in the final earlier this month, and he lost just one set before he got to the quarterfinals here. Mevedev, meanwhile, had grueling matches with Nick Kyrgios and Cressy, then had to battle back from two sets down to Felix Auger Aliassime in his quarterfinal.
Nadal has beaten Medvedev in a Grand Slam final before, at the 2019 U.S. Open. His only loss to the Russian was a fierce battle in the 2020 ATP Finals, where he won the first set and was serving for a straight-sets victory. Medvedev’s deep return position has served him well, but Nadal exploited it in his 2019 victory. The Spaniard still has his legendary competitive fire and a clear edge in experience on the big stage. He is 27-5 on hard courts the past three seasons.
Medvedev will be equally motivated as he seeks to take over the world’s No. 1 ranking from Djokovic. He is the reigning U.S. Open champion, denying Djokovis’s bid to break the record last year at Flushing Meadows. He has faced a challenging road to get here, but he has beaten much more dangerous players than Nadal has faced. There should be a lot of long rallies in this one, which could benefit the 25-year-old. He is 42-6 on hard courts the past two seasons.
Medvedev has 94 aces at this year’s tournament, the third-most among the men, and the 35-year-old Nadal doesn’t have the court coverage he once did. The Spaniard typically exploits the backhand, but the Russian is strong in that regard, and every shot is calculated, so he will make Nadal cover a lot of ground. Nadal has come out on top just once at the Australian Open, and Medvedev is a far different player than the one Nadal has seen since they last met.
How to make Nadal vs. Medvedev picks
Calvert has analyzed Medvedev vs. Nadal from all angles. He’s leaning over on the game total, and he also has advice on other picks, including one that returns 5-1. You can only see his Australian Open picks and betting analysis at SportsLine.
Who do you think will win?
Connelly: Medvedev. In a Djokovic-less universe, he’s the best hard-courter around. More importantly, he knows he can get this done. He’s got the proof-of-concept that all the other elite players in their early- to mid-20s are still searching for.
Gilbert: I want to see history and a great match. I say Nadal in a very tight four-setter.
Jensen: Styles of play make the fight, and these two back-court players are different in the way they approach rallies. Nadal wants to be the puncher right from the first strike. Medvedev wants to hang back and allow the point to develop before he finds his opening to strike. I see Nadal making history, reaching 21 major wins and running Medvedev all over Melbourne. The Spanish Bull wins in a five-set thriller!
Kumar: Nadal. I know he’s coming back from an injury and he’s 10 years older than Medvedev, but experience counts for a lot in a Grand Slam final. And let’s not forget the number of major finals Nadal has played in. Twenty-eight. Medvedev has been in four – including this year’s Australian Open – and in moments of intense pressure, I believe Nadal will know exactly how to navigate it. Nadal has an upper hand in their head-to-head at 3-1, and the last time they played each other at a final of a Grand Slam — at the 2019 US Open — Nadal did exactly that, keeping his cool during the most important moments, taking the final set 6-4 after losing the third and fourth set. I expect the final to be thrilling in every possible way, and I expect Nadal to walk away with the trophy.
Maine: As incredible of a story and ending to this tournament as Nadal winning No. 21 would be, Medvedev will prove to be just too good on hard court. Medvedev in four sets.
Michaels: I know Nadal played some amazing tennis in his semifinal win over Matteo Berrettini but I just can’t see Medvedev losing this match. He’s the best hard-court player in the world right now (okay, equal best!) and is growing in confidence each time he steps onto the court. The majority of crowd support will no doubt be with Rafa, but Medvedev has already shown that it won’t have a negative impact on his game (you only need to go back and look at his match against Nick Kyrgios). I’m picking Medvedev in four tough sets.
Shriver: Medvedev will make history by becoming the first man in the Open Era to follow up his first major win with his second in the very next major. Medvedev will move alongside Djokovic as the two best hard-court players of this generation. Medvedev in four sets.
Walsh: This is such a head vs. heart question this time around. There’s a reason that Medvedev is the best player in this draw and maybe even the world right now. He also relishes hard-court tournaments. Nadal very much prefers playing during the afternoon here, with the sun beating down and when the courts are a little faster. Given the evening start and the tournament the Russian is playing, I think Medvedev wins this in four sets — as wonderful as it would be to see a player hit that magical 21 Slam title mark here in Melbourne.